Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2153
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 2153 · HOU → PHX
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 8:34 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 33%
Thu 11/19 41%
Fri 11/20 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.78 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.