Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2176
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2176 · HOU → STL
departs 5:07 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 27%
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.0 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.97 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.