Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2179
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2179 · SJC → SNA
departs 3:27 PM PT · arrives 4:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 22%
Tue 11/17 17%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
SJC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,767 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.30 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.