Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2183
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2183 · SAN → OAK
departs 10:08 AM PT · arrives 11:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 18%
Tue 11/17 15%
Wed 11/18 15%
Thu 11/19 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.