Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2236
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 2236 · IND → TPA
departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 25%
Thu 11/19 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 57%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.