Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2279
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2279 · LAX → SFO
departs 9:56 AM PT · arrives 11:22 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 11/13 97%
Sat 11/14 38%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 54%
Tue 11/17 51%
Wed 11/18 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±12 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at SFO that day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.