Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2351
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2351 · SJC → LAS
departs 5:22 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 25%
Thu 11/19 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±8 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.41 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.