Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 236
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 236 · HRL → DAL
departs 11:35 AM CT · arrives 1:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 13%
Thu 11/19 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
11am departures from HRL are usually not late
Weather at each end
HRL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.00 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.