Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2393
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2393 · SMF → SNA
departs 3:12 PM PT · arrives 4:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 20%
Tue 11/17 21%
Wed 11/18 19%
Thu 11/19 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,567 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.37 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.