Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2474 · MSY → DAL
departs 4:31 PM CT · arrives 6:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 27%
Thu 11/19 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.