Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2578 · LGA → MDW
departs 5:53 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 57%
Thu 11/19 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.