Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 2582 · GEG → PHX
departs 4:02 PM PT · arrives 7:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 16%
Thu 11/19 28%
Fri 11/20 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
GEG usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.13 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.