Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2586 · LAX → OAK
departs 6:22 PM PT · arrives 7:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 42%
Tue 11/17 35%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 55%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.