Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 264 · DEN → SMF
departs 11:52 AM MT · arrives 1:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 29%
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 18%
Thu 11/19 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DEN that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.