Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2704
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2704 · SAN → SJC
departs 1:54 PM PT · arrives 3:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 31%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.