Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2764
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2764 · MCO → DAL
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 11/14 46%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 37%
Tue 11/17 27%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.