Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2778 · MCO → HOU
departs 11:45 AM ET · arrives 1:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 11/14 12%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 27%
Thu 11/19 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.