Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2798 · SAN → OAK
departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 3:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 32%
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.