Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2818 · MCO → MSY
departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 32%
Tue 11/17 19%
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.