Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2826
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2826 · MCO → OKC
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 10:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 59%
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 26%
Wed 11/18 25%
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.89 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.