Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2834
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2834 · BWI → PVD
departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 7:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 11/14 31%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 18%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.