Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2853 · LGB → LAS
departs 3:50 PM PT · arrives 5:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Tue 11/17 17%
Wed 11/18 25%
Thu 11/19 45%
Fri 11/20 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.