Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 287
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 287 · TUS → LAX
departs 3:41 PM MT · arrives 4:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 24%
Thu 11/19 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.