Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2894 · MDW → BNA
departs 3:56 PM CT · arrives 5:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 28%
Thu 11/19 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.