Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3210
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3210 · MCO → SAT
departs 5:08 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 34%
Thu 11/19 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.