Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3224 · OAK → ONT
departs 2:02 PM PT · arrives 3:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 25%
Thu 11/19 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.48 in
ONT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.