Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3437
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3437 · SMF → SAN
departs 2:12 PM PT · arrives 3:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 38%
Thu 11/19 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.