Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3454 · SJC → PHX
departs 2:53 PM PT · arrives 5:51 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,767 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.41 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.