Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3485 · GEG → SJC
departs 10:02 AM PT · arrives 12:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 12%
Thu 11/19 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
GEG usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.10 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,767 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.