Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3494 · PIT → PHX
departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 8:02 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 32%
Thu 11/19 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PIT are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.