Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 349
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 349 · AUS → JAX
departs 11:42 AM CT · arrives 3:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 22%
Thu 11/19 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.53 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.