Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3609 · RDU → BWI
departs 8:13 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 27%
Tue 11/17 6%
Wed 11/18 6%
Thu 11/19 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.