Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 392
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 392 · OAK → SNA
departs 2:27 PM PT · arrives 3:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 19%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 18%
Thu 11/19 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.45 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.