Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3985
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3985 · PDX → OAK
departs 5:26 PM PT · arrives 7:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 28%
Thu 11/19 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.16 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.