Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 3994 · SMF → BUR
departs 4:32 PM PT · arrives 6:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17 23%
Wed 11/18 20%
Thu 11/19 41%
Fri 11/20 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.38 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.