WN 3995 · SMF → BUR

departs 5:54 PM PT · arrives 7:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.46 in

BUR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3995 · SMF → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?