Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4010 · SMF → HNL
departs 5:27 PM PT · arrives 9:16 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Thu 11/19 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at HNL that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.