Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4023 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

WN 4023 · LGB → PHX

departs 2:40 PM PT · arrives 5:06 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from LGB are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4023 · LGB → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?