Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4024
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4024 · BWI → BOS
departs 6:17 PM ET · arrives 7:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 11/14 39%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 44%
Thu 11/19 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.