Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4081
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4081 · SNA → PHX
departs 5:21 PM PT · arrives 7:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 32%
Tue 11/17 22%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.