Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4091
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 4091 · LAX → OAK
departs 2:55 PM PT · arrives 4:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 37%
Tue 11/17 33%
Wed 11/18 30%
Thu 11/19 44%
Fri 11/20 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
2pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.