Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4092 · SNA → SMF
departs 9:06 AM PT · arrives 10:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sat 11/14 6%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 8%
Tue 11/17 5%
Wed 11/18 5%
Thu 11/19 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.