Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4165
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4165 · PHX → OMA
departs 3:41 PM MT · arrives 7:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 41%
Thu 11/19 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.