Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4241 · TPA → DAL
departs 9:07 PM ET · arrives 10:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Thu 11/19 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.