Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4244
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4244 · LAS → OKC
departs 6:07 PM PT · arrives 10:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 38%
Thu 11/19 52%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.89 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.