Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4298 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

WN 4298 · BWI → BDL

departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BDL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4298 · BWI → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?