WN 4301 · TUS → SAN

departs 7:28 PM MT · arrives 8:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4301 · TUS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?