Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4317
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4317 · SAN → SMF
departs 10:50 AM PT · arrives 12:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 22%
Tue 11/17 17%
Wed 11/18 20%
Thu 11/19 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.