Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4328
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4328 · HOU → MCO
departs 11:38 AM CT · arrives 2:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 23%
Thu 11/19 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.41 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.