Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4365
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4365 · MDW → PHL
departs 7:23 PM CT · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 36%
Thu 11/19 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.